DAILY ANALYSIS for 20 Maret 2014

Asian and European trading sessions:

U.S. Dollar: Dollar showed the most significant strengthening in the last seven months after the Federal Reserve yesterday hinted of a possible lifting of interest rates by the middle of next year. Following the meeting on March 18-19, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced its quantitative easing program by $ 10 billion for the third time in a row. Since April, the Central Bank will reduce the purchase US Treasuries from $ 35 billion to $ 30 billion a month, mortgage-backed securities -from $ 30 billion to $ 25 billion a month. In addition, the Central Bank has kept interest rate target range of 0% to 0.25% per annum. Some support the American currency was the labor market data. The Labor Department said: for the week ending March 15, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted, while reaching 320 thousand Economists had expected the value of this ratio will rise to 327 thousand add the result for the previous week appeared unchanged.

Swiss Franc: Swiss franc has fallen markedly against the dollar, which was due to yesterday's Fed decision, and today's announcement SNB. Note, the Swiss National Bank confirmed its intention to intervene in currency markets to prevent the strengthening of the franc. SNB also upheld the 3 -month interest rate range LIBOR 0, 0% -0, 25%, that is fixed by 11 consecutive months. Decision was consistent with economists' expectations. Bank noted the continuing high franc, and the restriction for EUR / CHF continues to be an essential tool to avoid undesirable tightening of monetary conditions in the event of renewed upward pressure on the Swiss franc. SNB also said it expects GDP growth in 2014 of around 2 %. Meanwhile, it became known about lowering the inflation outlook to 0.0 % in 2014 from 0.2% previously. Inflation forecast for 2015 was 0.4 %, compared with 0.6 % previously.

American trading session:

U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against its competitors as investors take into account the possibility of raising interest rates earlier than expected before. Data released in the U.S. as a whole were positive. The index of leading U.S. economic indicators rose in February 2014 by 0.5 %, according to a research organization Conference Board, which calculates. Analysts on average had forecast a rise of 0.3%. According to revised data, in January index increased by 0.1 % rather than 0.3%, as previously reported. The index of business activity in the district of Philadelphia also exceeded all forecasts. This figure soared in March to 9 points from minus 6.3 points in February, according to the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Philadelphia. Analysts on average expect its growth to just 4.2 points. The number of people who first applied for unemployment benefits, rose slightly last week, but was lower than predicted by most experts. The Labor Department said that for the week ending March 15, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted; while reaching 320 thousand Economists had expected the value of this ratio will rise to 327 thousand also add that the result for the previous week appeared unchanged. Analyst Department of Labor said that there were no special factors that could have an impact on the overall result. Meanwhile, it was reported that more important indicator that “aligns " weekly volatility - the average number of calls in the last four weeks ,down by 3.5 thousand to 327 thousand It was the lowest since the end of November. Sales in the secondary market fell slightly in February, a sign of slow recovery. Experts noted that the decline was associated with unusually cold weather and deteriorating housing affordability. National Association of Realtors said that seasonally adjusted sales of existing homes fell in February by 0.4 % to an annual rate with 4.6 million units, and recorded six declines over the past seven months. Many analysts expected that sales will increase to 4.65 million from 4.62 million in January. We add that the figure for January has not been revised. On the eve of the dollar rose by almost a percentage after Fed Chairman Janet Iellen at the press conference suggested that a rate hike may take place within six months after the central bank to terminate the bond buyback program. Rising interest rates may increase the investment attractiveness of the currency. The Fed announced a reduction in the monthly volume of redemption of bonds at 10 billion dollars, and changed the conditions under which interest rates will remain low. The threshold level of unemployment has been canceled. Dollar rally corresponded with increase of yield on 10-year bonds. The dollar index rose from 80.03 to 80.20.

Gold: Gold prices decline fourth consecutive session under the pressure of rising U.S. dollar, following statements by the Federal Reserve that it will reduce its monthly bond purchases by 10 billion dollars. The cost of the April gold futures dropped to $ 1320.70 per ounce on the COMEX today.

Oil: The cost of WTI oil brand cut losses after the growth of the index of leading indicators which increased optimism about stimulating demand for oil by strong U.S. economy. April futures price fell to $ 99.50 a barrel on the NYMEX.