Analisi 21 Maret 2014

EUR/USD
After the drop from its 29-months high, the price started a consolidation with a triangle shape, or to be more specific, a bearish pennant. After the third test of the lower level of the formation, yesterday the price did a rapid break and dropped to the 45-days bullish trend line (red). Since there was an interaction between the red bullish trend line and the 5-years bearish trend line (turquoise support), the price managed to test the both levels at once, which gives additional strength to the level of support. So, the price looks supported for now, which infers that a potential rebound is possible.

USD/JPY
After the price reached the the turquoise support for third time, it started increasing slightly, and not long after that, it exploded in bullish direction, which confirmed and completed the Double Bottom formation (red lines) we mentioned about. The price reached the resistance at 102.725 and started a correction, which resembles a bullish pennant (orange lines). Since we have a clear bullish activity and a bullish pennant afterwards, it is normal to expect the price to continue its ascendance.For this reason, we watch out for a break in the upper level of the formation, which could be used as a trigger of a long position.

GBPUSD:
The price completed more than half of the expected bearish movement. We remind that on D1 the price confirmed a Double Top formation, which was the reason for the bearish expectations. In the last two days, the price did the drop we are talking about and we notice that the bearish movement was happening in the frames of a bearish corridor (turquoise). This bearish corridor brought the price to the blue bullish corridor on D1 and the price is currently testing its lower level. Since the price has about 1/3 from the expected bearish move to take, we expect it to go beyond the lower level of the blue bullish corridor. Furthermore, the current correction of the price resembles a bearish pennant. For this reason, the price might continue moving into the turquoise bearish corridor and it could break the blue bullish corridor (D1).

USDCHF:
The price increased again to the 2-months orange bearish trend line and it is currently testing it for sixth time. The consolidation after the interaction with the trend line resembles a symmetrical triangle (yellow), where, as we all know, is possible to see a break in both directions. Since the price is testing a strong bearish trend line, it is likely to see the break in bearish direction. Actually, we even see the beginning of this break now. The price is slowly getting out of the symmetrical triangle and it is decreasing slightly. For this reason, the price looks like resisted from the orange bearish trend line and a drop is likely to occurr.

AUDUSD:
After the steady increase for the last week, yesterday the price did a rapid drop, which ended on the purple bullish trend line, which is a connector of the bottoms by the Head and the second Shoulder of the inverted Head and Shoulders formation on D1. As we all know, the Neck Line of the formation is already crossed, which confirms the formation and the expected outcome is likely to be an increase of the price. If we look at the chart on D1, we notice that this increase really exists, but it is slight. Maybe we are going to see a bullish explosion, which would push the price to create the beginning of the potential bullish movement. Anyway, the price has just bounced from the purple bullish trend line on H1, so this might be interpret as a pleasant opportunity to go long.