Analisis 27 Maret 2014

Eur/usd
After interacting with the already broken 5-years bearish trend line as a support (turquoise), the price bounced in bullish direction, where it tested again the Simple Moving Average 150 (yellow). The SMA resisted and the price started dropping. Suddenly, after half of the drop, the Momentum Indicator started moving in bullish direction, creating a bullish divergence with the graph of the price. For this reason, we believe that the price might start increasing before touching the already broken turquoise 5-years bearish trend line. The other scenario might be, a sudden drop to the turquoise line and a rapid rebound.

USDJPY:

The symmetrical triangle led to an outcome. After many frequent tests, the lower level of the triangle did not manage to hold the pressure of the price, which broke in bearish direction and dropped around 45 pips. Then something like a Double Bottom formation was created and the price started rapidly increasing. If we state that this is really a Double Bottom formation, the price still has to complete at least 50% of the potential movement. Therefore, the logical scenario would be a return to the upper level of the triangle, a resistance and a new drop, where the next crucial level would be the lower bottom of the formation.

GBPUSD:

The price did a crucial break in bullish direction, while testing the lower level of the already broken bullish corridor as a resistance (D1). Furthermore, it also broke through the purple 20-days bearish trend line, which was the indication of the bearish movement, which was a result of the Double Top formation on D1. Having in mind that the price did such significant breaks, it is most likely to see a new bullish movement. We remind that it is likely to see a return to some of the broken level or to all of them at once.

USDCHF:

After the price dropped and interacted with the upper level of the already broken bearish corridor (red) on D1, the price started increasing constantly with moving after a bullish trend line (blue), which is tested 5 times already. At the same time, the resistance around 0.88660 is still strong and unbroken. The resistance and the line form an ascending triangle, which, as we all know has bearish potential. For this reason we believe that the price would break through the blue bullish trend line and would start a drop, which has a potential with the size of the triangle. We would like to mention, that the price might first touch the pink resistance again, before starting dropping.

AUDUSD:

The price is still moving after the bullish trend line, which is a result of the inverted Head and Shoulders formation on the D1 chart (the neckline is the orange straight line). Suddenly, the price created a top, where the price is trying to break again. This means that we have a resistance (pink), which might change the situation. Furthermore, there is a big bearish divergence between the price and the Momentum Indicator (blue line), which is in a harmony with the pink resistance. For this reason, we believe that the price might drop and break through the blue bullish trend line. If this happens, the Fibonacci Retracement would be a good tool to determine the potential supports and the eventual rebound point. After all, on D1 we have an inverted Head and Shoulders formation to follow.