Analisis 26 Maret 2014

Eur/usd
The price tested the 5-years bearish trend line (turquoise) for fourth time. The level stood up the pressure of the price and a bullish bounce occurred. The bounce is visible on the Momentum Indicator too, but after the price reached a certain level, after two hours it started dropping, while the Momentum Indicator continued with the higher tops and bottoms. In other words, this is a clear bullish divergence. In a combination with the strong support (the 5-years bearish trend), we might state that the price would most likely restore the bullish movement.

USDJPY:
The consolidation after the Double Bottom formation started resembling a symmetrical triangle (orange). The tops of the triangle are synchronized with the previous clearly stated top by a bearish trend line (turquoise). The Momentum Indicator is consolidating too. As we all know, the symmetrical triangle has the potential to push the price in both direction. Having in mind that the price is touching a bearish trend line, the most logical scenario would be a bearish bounce and a drop with the size of the triangle or to the support formed by the Double Bottom formation. On the other hand, we should be careful for bullish breaks. If such occurs, we might see the price testing the 3-months purple bearish trend line.

GBPUSD:
The price has returned to test as a resistance the already broken lower level of the blue bullish corridor (D1). The price bounced in bearish direction afterwards. The last two bottoms of the price could be connected with a line (light blue bullish line), which might have the potential to support the price. For this reason, one of the possible scenarios for the price is a drop to the light blue bullish line and a bullish increase afterwards. The interaction point between the lower level of the blue bullish corridor (D1) and the purple bearish trend line might be the next test zone of the price.

USDCHF:
After breaking in bullish direction through the upper level of the red bearish corridor, the price started a consolidation, which formed a resistance in the area around 0.88600 (pink). After the last interaction with this resistance, the price dropped for a test of the already broken upper level of the red bearish corridor as a support. The level stood the pressure of the price and currently we witness a bullish movement. The Momentum Indicator also signalizes for a bullish activity. For this reason, we believe that the price would most likely return to the pink resistance and having in mind the test of the upper level of the corridor as a support and the fact that during the last interaction with the pink resistance, the price did a little break, we believe that the price might even see a break through the pink resistance.

AUDUSD:
The price broke again through the Neck Line of the inverted Head and Shoulders formation on the D1 chart. Thereafter the price started moving after a bullish trend line (turquoise), which is probably beginning of the bullish effect owing the inverted Head and Shoulders formation. The Momentum Indicator also shows a slight bullish increase (light blue line), which has already moved above the 100-level line. For this reason, we believe that the price would continue following the turquoise bullish trend line for now. The situation looks pleasant for a long-term bullish position, which might lead to a profit of 300-400 pips.

Analisi 21 Maret 2014

EUR/USD
After the drop from its 29-months high, the price started a consolidation with a triangle shape, or to be more specific, a bearish pennant. After the third test of the lower level of the formation, yesterday the price did a rapid break and dropped to the 45-days bullish trend line (red). Since there was an interaction between the red bullish trend line and the 5-years bearish trend line (turquoise support), the price managed to test the both levels at once, which gives additional strength to the level of support. So, the price looks supported for now, which infers that a potential rebound is possible.

USD/JPY
After the price reached the the turquoise support for third time, it started increasing slightly, and not long after that, it exploded in bullish direction, which confirmed and completed the Double Bottom formation (red lines) we mentioned about. The price reached the resistance at 102.725 and started a correction, which resembles a bullish pennant (orange lines). Since we have a clear bullish activity and a bullish pennant afterwards, it is normal to expect the price to continue its ascendance.For this reason, we watch out for a break in the upper level of the formation, which could be used as a trigger of a long position.

GBPUSD:
The price completed more than half of the expected bearish movement. We remind that on D1 the price confirmed a Double Top formation, which was the reason for the bearish expectations. In the last two days, the price did the drop we are talking about and we notice that the bearish movement was happening in the frames of a bearish corridor (turquoise). This bearish corridor brought the price to the blue bullish corridor on D1 and the price is currently testing its lower level. Since the price has about 1/3 from the expected bearish move to take, we expect it to go beyond the lower level of the blue bullish corridor. Furthermore, the current correction of the price resembles a bearish pennant. For this reason, the price might continue moving into the turquoise bearish corridor and it could break the blue bullish corridor (D1).

USDCHF:
The price increased again to the 2-months orange bearish trend line and it is currently testing it for sixth time. The consolidation after the interaction with the trend line resembles a symmetrical triangle (yellow), where, as we all know, is possible to see a break in both directions. Since the price is testing a strong bearish trend line, it is likely to see the break in bearish direction. Actually, we even see the beginning of this break now. The price is slowly getting out of the symmetrical triangle and it is decreasing slightly. For this reason, the price looks like resisted from the orange bearish trend line and a drop is likely to occurr.

AUDUSD:
After the steady increase for the last week, yesterday the price did a rapid drop, which ended on the purple bullish trend line, which is a connector of the bottoms by the Head and the second Shoulder of the inverted Head and Shoulders formation on D1. As we all know, the Neck Line of the formation is already crossed, which confirms the formation and the expected outcome is likely to be an increase of the price. If we look at the chart on D1, we notice that this increase really exists, but it is slight. Maybe we are going to see a bullish explosion, which would push the price to create the beginning of the potential bullish movement. Anyway, the price has just bounced from the purple bullish trend line on H1, so this might be interpret as a pleasant opportunity to go long.

DAILY ANALYSIS for 20 Maret 2014

Asian and European trading sessions:

U.S. Dollar: Dollar showed the most significant strengthening in the last seven months after the Federal Reserve yesterday hinted of a possible lifting of interest rates by the middle of next year. Following the meeting on March 18-19, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced its quantitative easing program by $ 10 billion for the third time in a row. Since April, the Central Bank will reduce the purchase US Treasuries from $ 35 billion to $ 30 billion a month, mortgage-backed securities -from $ 30 billion to $ 25 billion a month. In addition, the Central Bank has kept interest rate target range of 0% to 0.25% per annum. Some support the American currency was the labor market data. The Labor Department said: for the week ending March 15, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted, while reaching 320 thousand Economists had expected the value of this ratio will rise to 327 thousand add the result for the previous week appeared unchanged.

Swiss Franc: Swiss franc has fallen markedly against the dollar, which was due to yesterday's Fed decision, and today's announcement SNB. Note, the Swiss National Bank confirmed its intention to intervene in currency markets to prevent the strengthening of the franc. SNB also upheld the 3 -month interest rate range LIBOR 0, 0% -0, 25%, that is fixed by 11 consecutive months. Decision was consistent with economists' expectations. Bank noted the continuing high franc, and the restriction for EUR / CHF continues to be an essential tool to avoid undesirable tightening of monetary conditions in the event of renewed upward pressure on the Swiss franc. SNB also said it expects GDP growth in 2014 of around 2 %. Meanwhile, it became known about lowering the inflation outlook to 0.0 % in 2014 from 0.2% previously. Inflation forecast for 2015 was 0.4 %, compared with 0.6 % previously.

American trading session:

U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against its competitors as investors take into account the possibility of raising interest rates earlier than expected before. Data released in the U.S. as a whole were positive. The index of leading U.S. economic indicators rose in February 2014 by 0.5 %, according to a research organization Conference Board, which calculates. Analysts on average had forecast a rise of 0.3%. According to revised data, in January index increased by 0.1 % rather than 0.3%, as previously reported. The index of business activity in the district of Philadelphia also exceeded all forecasts. This figure soared in March to 9 points from minus 6.3 points in February, according to the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Philadelphia. Analysts on average expect its growth to just 4.2 points. The number of people who first applied for unemployment benefits, rose slightly last week, but was lower than predicted by most experts. The Labor Department said that for the week ending March 15, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted; while reaching 320 thousand Economists had expected the value of this ratio will rise to 327 thousand also add that the result for the previous week appeared unchanged. Analyst Department of Labor said that there were no special factors that could have an impact on the overall result. Meanwhile, it was reported that more important indicator that “aligns " weekly volatility - the average number of calls in the last four weeks ,down by 3.5 thousand to 327 thousand It was the lowest since the end of November. Sales in the secondary market fell slightly in February, a sign of slow recovery. Experts noted that the decline was associated with unusually cold weather and deteriorating housing affordability. National Association of Realtors said that seasonally adjusted sales of existing homes fell in February by 0.4 % to an annual rate with 4.6 million units, and recorded six declines over the past seven months. Many analysts expected that sales will increase to 4.65 million from 4.62 million in January. We add that the figure for January has not been revised. On the eve of the dollar rose by almost a percentage after Fed Chairman Janet Iellen at the press conference suggested that a rate hike may take place within six months after the central bank to terminate the bond buyback program. Rising interest rates may increase the investment attractiveness of the currency. The Fed announced a reduction in the monthly volume of redemption of bonds at 10 billion dollars, and changed the conditions under which interest rates will remain low. The threshold level of unemployment has been canceled. Dollar rally corresponded with increase of yield on 10-year bonds. The dollar index rose from 80.03 to 80.20.

Gold: Gold prices decline fourth consecutive session under the pressure of rising U.S. dollar, following statements by the Federal Reserve that it will reduce its monthly bond purchases by 10 billion dollars. The cost of the April gold futures dropped to $ 1320.70 per ounce on the COMEX today.

Oil: The cost of WTI oil brand cut losses after the growth of the index of leading indicators which increased optimism about stimulating demand for oil by strong U.S. economy. April futures price fell to $ 99.50 a barrel on the NYMEX.